The Washington Quarterly

Israel’s Military Option
Giora Eiland
Sanctioning Iran: If Only It
Were So Simple
Suzanne Maloney
Negotiating with Iran: Reflections from Personal Experience
James Dobbins
The Iranian Nuclear Riddle after
June 12
Shahram Chubin
Iran’s Foreign Policy
Strategy after Saddam
Kayhan Barzegar
Picture the Problem: What if negotiations with Iran fail?

JANUARY 2010 Volume 33, Number 1

Iran's Foreign Policy Strategy after Saddam, Kayhan Barzegar, January 2010.
The Role of Islam in Pakistan's Future, Husain Haqqani, Winter 2004-05.
Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis, Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris, April 2009.
China in the Global Financial Crisis: Rising Influence, Rising Challenges , William H. Overholt, January 2010.
Israel's Military Option, Giora Eiland, January 2010.
Europe and Islam: Crescent Waxing, Cultures Clashing, Timothy M. Savage, Summer 2004.
The Security Implications of Climate Change, John Podesta and Peter Ogden, Winter 2007-08.
Iran-Iraq Relations after Saddam, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Autumn 2003.
Resetting U.S.-Russian Relations: It Takes Two, David J. Kramer, January 2010.
Japan's Confused Revolution, Michael J. Green, January 2010.

Japan’s Confused Revolution Michael J. Green	China in the Global Financial Crisis: Rising Influence, Rising Challenges William H. Overholt
Kim Jong-il’s Successor Dilemmas Scott Snyder	The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Islamist Militancy in South Asia Sumit Ganguly and S. Paul Kapur
Resetting U.S.-Russian Relations: It Takes Two David J. Kramer	Rethinking State-building in a Failed State Seth Kaplan
The Limits of Audacity Simon Serfaty


SECURITY CHALLENGES FACING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
This exclusive Washington Quarterly e-briefing book offers insights and policy recommendations from leading bipartisan strategic thinkers to help navigate some of the most critical and complex security issues facing the Obama administration and its newly-announced national security leadership.
Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris (initially published in April 2009). Drafters of the National Intelligence Council’s 2025 report forecast potential effects of the ongoing financial crisis on the economy, the role of the state, and the shape of world order. Will reduced U.S. political and market clout be one of the casualties? More on Multipolarity/Multilateralism and U.S. Hegemony> Weak States and Global Threats: Fact or Fiction? Stewart Patrick (initially published in Spring 2006) Little evidence underpins existing sweeping assertions about the connection between weak or failing states and transnational threats such as terrorism, proliferation, or disease, even though policy is being implemented accordingly. What characteristics of state weakness are really associated with which dangers? More on Foreign Aid and Economic Development> Understanding the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Debate Christopher F. Chyba and J.D. Crouch (initially published July 2009) Together, a former NSC official from each of the last two administrations identify eight key divergent views in the ongoing U.S. nuclear weapons policy, posture, and programs debates, and explain the most important areas of disagreement and consensus. More on Weapons of Mass Desctruction > The Security Implications of Climate Change John Podesta and Peter Ogden (initially published Winter 2007-08) Within the next 30 years, climate change is expected to cause destabilizing migration, massive food and water shortages, devastating natural disaster, and deadly disease outbreaks that will present serious security challenges not only to directly affected countries, but to the United States and the entire international community. More on Energy and Environment> Talking with Insurgents: A Guide for the Perplexed Daniel Byman (initially published in April 2009) Talks with insurgents are often necessary to end conflicts, but they can also be politically costly, fail, and even backfire. Policymakers and analysts should consider these eight questions, derived from Iraq and elsewhere, for Afghanistan and beyond More on Terrorism>	The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia Mark Kramer (initially published in April 2009). Recently declassified evidence undermines the contention that top-level assurances were provided to Gorbachev in 1990 not to enlarge NATO either eastward or to former Soviet states. No such assurances were ever given or sought. More on Russia > What Do They Really Want?: Obama’s North Korea Conundrum Victor Cha (initially published October 2009) Kim Jong-il may want nuclear weapons, but is that all? The former deputy of the U.S. delegation to the Six-Party Talks draws on North Korean positions that, even when contradictory, may explain core goals which lie beneath Pyongyang’s rhetoric and provocative actions. More on the Koreas> A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond (initially published Spring 2005) In its nuclear negotiations with the rest of the world, Iran has been pursuing a strategy of “heads you lose, tails we win.” The United States needs a bold and fundamentally different strategy that would engage the Iranian regime and people on two tracks, allowing U.S. diplomats to pursue arms control and democratization at the same time. More on Iran> Pakistan's Record on Terrorism: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance Ashley J. Tellis (initially published in Spring 2008) Islamabad's inability to defeat the terrorist groups operating from its soil is rooted in many factors that go beyond its admittedly serious motivational deficiencies to combat terrorism. More on South Asia> The Anbar Awakening: An Alliance of Incentives John A. McCary (initially published in January 2009) The September 2006 shift in Iraq’s al Anbar province was caused neither by the number of U.S. troops in “the surge,” nor outrage at the brutality of al Qaeda’s tactics, but the Sunni tribal sheikhs’ increased sense of al Qaeda’s threat to their power, leading them to align with the U.S. military and its new strategy. More on Iraq>

		Reshaping Rogue States Preemption, Regime Change, and US Policy toward Iran, Iraq, and North Korea		Global Powers in the 21st Century The Politics, Power, and Visions of China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia		The Epicenter of Crisis: The New Middle East Examining Six Critical Countries in a Changed World
		The Battle for Hearts and Minds Using Soft Power to Undermine Terrorist Networks		What Does the World Want from America? International Perspectives on U.S. Foreign Policy		Contemporary Nuclear Debates Missile Defense, Arms Control, and Arms Races in the Twenty-First Century